Exploring the Influence Mechanisms of New Quality Productive Forces on the High-Quality Development of the Sports Industry

Abstract Background This study investigates the linkage between the emergent category of new quality productive forces and the high-quality development trajectory of China’s sports industry. As innovation-oriented and technology-intensive productive elements increasingly redefine the drivers of industrial upgrading, they have become a pivotal mechanism shaping the restructuring of the sports industry. Nevertheless, systematic empirical research capable of elucidating their concrete developmental impacts remains insufficient, leaving the internal pathways through which these forces promote high-quality industrial outcomes largely underexamined. Methods Using panel data from 17 Chinese provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities covering the period 2014–2022, this research constructs two comprehensive analytical frameworks: one for evaluating new-quality productive forces (NQPF), characterized by new-type labor, labor objects, and labor materials, and another for assessing high-quality development in the sports industry, reflected in economic performance, social impact, and coordination level. Composite indices for both systems were generated using the entropy-weight method to capture their relative development status. To explore the relationship between NQPF and sports industry development, multiple empirical approaches were applied, including baseline regression, mediation testing, threshold analysis, and the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to account for spatial dependencies. Results The empirical analysis reveals that NQPF exert a statistically robust and positive influence on the high-quality development of the sports industry (β = 0.6601, p < 0.001). Further decomposition shows that this relationship operates partly through mediating mechanisms, in which technological innovation and the scale of sports-related enterprises serve as intermediate transmission channels. Among them, technological innovation constitutes the more substantial pathway, generating a mediating contribution of 0.2847. In addition, the level of regional economic development presents a single-threshold characteristic (threshold value = 9.0511); once this threshold is exceeded, the marginal contribution of NQPF rises by approximately 30.6%. Spatial econometric results further demonstrate that these productive forces are not confined to local effects: an incremental increase within a given province yields notable spatial spillovers, enhancing the high-quality development of adjacent regions by an estimated 0.2803 units. Conclusions NQPF constitute a fundamental driver of the sports industry's transition toward high-quality development. Their influence is manifested not only through their direct contribution to industrial upgrading, but also through the enhancement of technological innovation capabilities and the diffusion of positive effects across regional spaces. The results of this study thus offer conceptual grounding and empirical evidence that can inform policy formulation and strategic planning aimed at promoting the modernization and sustainable evolution of China’s sports industry.