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Falling Russian oil exports will pressure ruble
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Significance
A weaker ruble will dampen Russian imports and this could deepen recession in 2023. The role of ruble-renminbi transactions has increased as the authorities seek to reduce exposure to the US dollar, but the ruble's volatility reduces its attraction as a trading currency.
Impacts
Ruble devaluation will add to inflationary pressures.
If devaluation ignites inflationary expectations, the central bank may resort to monetary tightening.
The removal of capital controls is unlikely for the foreseeable future.
Title: Falling Russian oil exports will pressure ruble
Description:
Significance
A weaker ruble will dampen Russian imports and this could deepen recession in 2023.
The role of ruble-renminbi transactions has increased as the authorities seek to reduce exposure to the US dollar, but the ruble's volatility reduces its attraction as a trading currency.
Impacts
Ruble devaluation will add to inflationary pressures.
If devaluation ignites inflationary expectations, the central bank may resort to monetary tightening.
The removal of capital controls is unlikely for the foreseeable future.
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