Diffusion and Adoption of IPv6 in the Arin Region

In the near term there will be no available, unallocated IPv4 addresses. From original estimates of IPv4 exhaustion in 2037, the most widely-cited current estimates for ARIN IPv4 address depletion is now at 2013. This deadline gives a particular importance to IPv6 adoption. The goals of this work were to identify valid measures of IPv6 diffusion and use classic diffusion models to bound the uncertainty in those measures. With these measures and simple models we can bound best case, current projection and reasonably optimistic cases for the adoption of the IPv6 protocol. For these ends, the work discusses previous analysis of IPv6 routes and ASN data from ARIN to quantify the current adoption rate. We conclude that there is no reasonable case for diffusion of IPv6 before IPv4 full allocation. The second significant contribution, besides measurement and bounding uncertainty, that is provided in this paper is to what extent the now well established fundamental findings of the economics of computer security can apply to the diffusion of IPv6. The second significant but unanswered question is if the creation of a transferrable property interest in IPv4 addresses, informed by computer security economics, will hinder or galvanize IPv6 adoption. In order to address these questions the paper provides some non-trivial insights on IPv6 through presenting sketches of four scenarios: no action, IPv4 market creation, coordination government action and registrar- only management. As much as conclusions, this paper offers a set of questions that are critical to consider.