Crop Carbon Sink Inequality and Regional Agricultural Development: A Multi-Scale Analysis of Hubei Province

This study investigates the relationship between crop carbon sink inequality and regional agricultural development through a multi-scale analysis of Hubei Province, China, from 1997 to 2022. Using panel data on crop yields, sown areas, and agricultural inputs across all prefecture-level administrative units, the research quantifies crop carbon sinks through a photosynthetic carbon fixation model and examines their spatial-temporal dynamics. The analysis reveals significant stage characteristics in carbon sink evolution, with an overall upward trend punctuated by periods of acceleration and stabilization, reflecting shifts in agricultural policies, technological adoption, and land use intensity.&nbsp; <div> Spatial differences are pronounced: the Jianghan Plain and eastern hilly regions exhibit substantially higher carbon sink densities compared to the western mountainous areas, driven by variations in cropping structure, multiple cropping indices, and management practices. Decomposition of regional inequality using Theil index and kernel density estimation shows that intra-regional disparities have narrowed over time, while interregional gaps have persisted and, in some cases, widened, particularly between the central agricultural core and peripheral zones.&nbsp; </div> <div> This pattern suggests that crop carbon sink capacity is not only a biophysical outcome but also a product of uneven development trajectories, where access to irrigation infrastructure, fertilizer inputs, and market integration creates cumulative advantages for certain areas. The dynamic evolution analysis further indicates that high-sink regions tend to maintain their status, while low-sink regions face inertia in improving their carbon sequestration potential, pointing to path-dependent lock-in effects.&nbsp; </div> <div> From a regional development perspective, these inequalities raise critical questions about the distribution of both climate mitigation benefits and agricultural modernization gains. Areas with higher carbon sinks often correspond to more intensive farming systems that may entail trade-offs with other sustainability dimensions, such as water consumption, soil health, and biodiversity.&nbsp; </div> <div> The findings underscore the need for spatially differentiated policies that simultaneously enhance carbon sequestration in underperforming regions through agroecological practices, improved crop varieties, and extension services, while managing the environmental footprint of high-sink zones. The study contributes to the broader discourse on sustainable agricultural transformation by demonstrating that carbon sink inequality is a measurable and policy-relevant dimension of regional development disparities.&nbsp; </div> <div> Future research should integrate economic valuation of carbon services, explore telecoupling effects through trade flows, and assess the resilience of carbon sinks under climate change scenarios to inform more equitable and effective land-use planning. </div>