Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Products Import Trade on Agricultural Carbon Productivity: Empirical Evidence from China

Abstract To realize the goal of “dual carbon”, China urgently needs to seek the path of low-carbon agricultural development. The existing agricultural trade deficit in China has become an established reality. As China progressively increases its agricultural openness to the global market and advances the low-carbon agricultural development, it holds both academic significance and practical relevance to analyze the impact of agricultural products import trade on China’s agricultural carbon productivity. This paper focuses on the period from 2000 to 2020 and takes 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) of China as the research object. It empirically examines the impact and mechanism of agricultural products import trade on agricultural carbon productivity by constructing a dynamic panel model, a dynamic panel threshold model, a dynamic panel quartile model, and a multiple intermediary effect model. This paper yields the following conclusions: Firstly, agricultural products import trade positively impacts agricultural carbon productivity. Secondly, there is a single threshold effect based on economic development level, that is, real per capita income of 8872.19 yuan, and after reaching the threshold, the promotion effect of agricultural products import trade on agricultural carbon productivity will decrease. Thirdly, agricultural products import trade increases agricultural carbon productivity by reducing agricultural factor inputs and upgrading agricultural production technology level, and agricultural products import trade decreases agricultural carbon productivity by adjusting agricultural industrial structure; Agricultural products import trade reduces agricultural carbon productivity by adjusting agricultural industrial structure. Therefore, this paper proposes to increase agricultural products imports moderately based on guaranteeing food security, optimize structure of agricultural production and agricultural products import trade, and leverage the technological spillover effects of agricultural products import trade and encourage agricultural scientific and technological innovation. These suggestions aim to elevate China’s agricultural carbon productivity and facilitate the green and low-carbon agricultural transformation.