Post-COVID-19 Commuting Patterns in California: A Hybrid Multiple Discrete-continuous Extreme Value Approach

The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly altered commuting patterns in the United States, reducing transit use, increasing private vehicle reliance, and accelerating the shift toward telework. This study investigates post-COVID-19 commuting mode choices and usage frequencies among full-time workers in California, where work-from-home is formally included as a mode option. Employing a Hybrid Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value (HMDCEV) model, we capture the direct and indirect effects of observed factors alongside unobserved latent attitudinal factors on commuting behavior and mode utility. Findings indicate that younger, educated, and high-income individuals demonstrate higher Non-Car Amenability and lower Car Enthusiasm. Teleworking is negatively associated with parenthood. Urban residency correlates with higher Non-Car Amenability and lower Car Dependency, significantly increasing public transport likelihood. Post-estimation average treatment effects show that "Absolute Flexibility" in workplace location substantially increases telework preference and reduces private vehicle use. These findings offer actionable insights for policymakers promoting sustainable post-pandemic commuting.