Post-COVID-19 Commuting Patterns in California: A Hybrid Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value Approach

Commuting remains a significant driver of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the United States (U.S.), representing 28% pre-COVID-19 and 30% post-COVID-19, respectively. The pandemic profoundly altered established commuting patterns, reducing transit use, increasing private vehicle reliance, and prompting a shift toward telework, effectively acting as virtual commuting. This study investigates post-COVID-19 commuting mode choices and usage frequencies for full-time workers in California (where work-from-home is formally defined as one of the mode options). Employing a Hybrid Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value (HMDCEV) model, we capture the effects of both observed factors — socio-demographics, residential, employment, and household characteristics — and unobserved latent attitudinal factors. Using data collected in California (August 2023 and February 2024), the research disentangles the direct and indirect effects of these factors on commuting behavior and mode utility. In terms of attitudes, findings indicate that younger, educated, and high-income individuals demonstrate higher Non-Car Amenability and lower Car Enthusiasm, signaling distinct travel preferences compared to other groups. Teleworking is negatively associated with parenthood. Urban residency correlates with higher Non-Car Amenability and lower Car Dependency attitudes, which significantly increase the likelihood of choosing public transport. Post-estimation average treatment effects analysis shows that "Absolute Flexibility" in workplace location choice substantially increases telework preference and reduces private vehicle use, regardless of prior flexibility status. This underscores the importance of workplace-based policies on future commuting patterns, with critical implications for congestion, greenhouse gas emissions, and pollution. The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers seeking to promote sustainable and equitable commuting in the post-pandemic era.