Future Development Path of China's Fossil Energy under the Background of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality

Abstract This research focuses on two main lines: national energy supply and demand security under the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, as well as national energy green and low-carbon development. The research conducts quantitative prediction on the total demand and energy structure of national fossil energy under low-carbon transformation goals, providing reference for the country to implement green and low-carbon energy transformation and build a new energy system. Based on the national energy security and carbon peak and carbon neutrality strategic objectives, this study uses grey relational analysis to conduct multi-factor analysis and innovatively builds a fossil energy development potential prediction model under the "dual carbon" goal constraints. Three scenarios of robust-sustainable transformation, active-CCUS technology breakthrough, and radical-renewable energy technology breakthrough are designed to analyze the energy development paths under different scenarios, outlining the national energy development path and defining the quantitative targets for the fossil energy development phase. Through multiple model calculations, it is found that in the three scenarios, China's primary energy consumption will peak around 2030, with a peak value of approximately 5.99-6.01 billion tons of standard coal. The total energy consumption demand will slowly decline from 2030 to 2040, and maintain basic stability from 2040 to 2060. In the three scenarios of robust, positive and radical, China's energy consumption in 2030 is respectively 6.01, 5.99 and 6.01 billion tons of standard coal, of which non-fossil energy accounts for 24.9%, 27.0% and 28.3% respectively. By 2060, China's energy consumption will be approximately 5.63, 5.8, and 5.87 billion tons of standard coal, with non-fossil energy accounting for 73.6%, 80.0%, and 85.2% respectively. In response to the challenges facing the adjustment of the national energy supply and demand structure, this research has proposed corresponding development strategies from the three aspects of policy system, industrial layout, and technological innovation. The research results of this project have strong forward-looking, strategic and guiding significance, providing a theoretical basis for the country's energy transformation and development under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, with significant comprehensive benefits.