Assessing Water Resource Carrying Capacity and Sustainability in the Cele–Yutian Oasis (China): A TOPSIS–Markov Model Analysis

This study employs the Driving Force–Pressure–State–Response (DPSR) framework to establish an evaluation index system for the water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) in the Cele–Yutian Oasis (China). Utilizing the TOPSIS and obstacle degree models, we analyze the trends in the WRCC and its main hindrance factors in the Cele–Yutian Oasis from 2005 to 2020. Additionally, we employ the Markov model to investigate the dynamic changes in the land use types. The findings reveal that the most unfavorable WRCC status occurred in 2007, with a Grade IV rating (a mild overload). By 2020, the WRCC improved to a Grade III rating (critical), indicating a positive trajectory. However, persistent challenges for water resources remain, with a prolonged critical state. Over the past 15 years, the grassland area has decreased by 15.18%, and the forest area has decreased by 50%. The dynamic degree of grassland, forests, and water bodies is negative, signifying shifts to other land types, with water bodies undergoing the most significant change at −10.16%. Based on the outcomes of these two models, we propose regionally tailored measures to support sustainable development. These research results provide a scientific foundation for optimal water resource allocation and sustainable development in the Cele–Yutian Oasis Economic Belt.