The Behavior of COVID-19 in urban health among the capitals of Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte through the dynamics of the SEIR model

Abstract Objective: To describe the dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic associated with urban health in the capitals of Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro using a mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations in the susceptible, exposed, infected, and removed SEIR dynamics model. Study design: This is a search for data in the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System and data available and published online by the health secretariats of the capitals of Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro.Methods: A search was carried out between February 2019 and May 2020 between territorial area, mobility, sanitation, health information (TABNET), and information from the health secretariat of the capitals of Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais. It was used the SEIR differential equation model by the R program. Result: The estimated population (2021) of Rio de Janeiro is 6,775,561 people, with a population density equal to 5,265.82 inhabitants per km2. In Belo Horizonte, the population is 2,530,701 people, with a population density equal to 7,167.00 inhabitants per km2. The number of COVID-19 cases in 2020 in Rio de Janeiro was 221,480, there were 18,962 deaths, and the case fatality rate was 8.7%. In Belo Horizonte, according to the epidemiological bulletin. Conclusion: The SEIR model helped understand the urban health of Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro about COVID-19. It demonstrated that the probability of transmission would be greater among the susceptible exposed to the infection, leading to the highest number of mortalities in an urban environment.