Decomposition of Ethiopian life expectancy by age and cause of mortality; 1990-2010

Background : Ethiopia, a sub-Saharan country with over 94 million populations growing at a rate of 2.6 percent is showing a fast socio-economic improvement. According to World Health Organization 2014, life expectancy in the country has increased by about 19 years with in the last two decades. It has also reduced child mortality by 2/3rd; two years ahead of millennium development goal deadline. This research will focus in decomposing the improvement in life expectancy in the country from 1990 to 2010. Methods : We used a secondary data on cause and age specific mortality estimate of Ethiopia from institute of health metrics and evaluation. Burden of disease is measured using potential life years lost and potential life years gained using survival 6 program and compared across time. Further improvement in life expectancy is decomposed across age and specific causes using Pollard’s life expectancy decomposition method. Results: Burden of disease measured in weighted years of life lost (YLL) shows that lower respiratory infection at a value of 5.35, neonatal disorders [4.058], diarrheal diseases [3.6], neglected tropical diseases [2.4], meningitis [1.49] and tuberculosis [1.19] are the top causes of burden in 1990 which showed a slight shift in 2010. Lower respiratory tract infections showed the highest reduction in YLL by about 41.27%, followed by diarrheal disease (32.8%) and meningitis (26.46%). Decomposition of life expectancy shows among the total 15.25 years increase in life expectancy from 1990 to 2010, about 5.8 (35.78%) years of increase in life expectancy is achieved through improved longevity in children’s aged 1- 4 year. On the other hand diarrheal diseases reduction contributes about 3.12 [15.96%] followed by lower respiratory infection about 2.54 [12.98%], neglected tropical diseases by 1.45 [7.43%] and tuberculosis by 1.2 [6.25%] years. Conclusions and recommendation: Burden of disease in Ethiopia has declined dramatically which has contributed to the improvement in life expectancy, with the highest reduction already recorded in major communicable diseases. Though it is encouraging that mortality from children has reduced in the country, the slow change in mortality and burden of disease in the general adult population needs future public attention.