Life expectancy nexus mortality in 14 selected SADC countries with trend analysis

Abstract Background This study provides a plethora of dimensional analysis of the relationship between life expectancy (LE) and various mortality-related indicators across 14 selected Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries over a 13-year historical period. Objective The objective of the study is to analyze the historical impacts of health and economic indicators on life expectancy from 2010 to 2022 and to forecast regional development trends up to 2027. Method The study covers 14 specific nations: Angola, Botswana, Comoros, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Methodologically, a dynamic panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and a machine learning Random Forest model were deployed using Python and R (version 4.5.3) for data analysis and predictive modelling. Results The correlation analysis identified infant mortality (IM), under-5 mortality and HIV prevalence (HIVP) as the most significant negative predictors oscillating between − 0.72 and − 0.90 of life expectancy, GDP per capita serves as a critical positive predictor. Key findings reveal a general upward trend in life expectancy across the SADC region over the 13-year historical period, although a notable dip occurred around 2021, likely due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The random forest model achieved a high predictive accuracy with an R² value of 0.94, while the OLS regression model demonstrated an R² of 0.924, highlighting the strong explanatory power of the selected health and economic indicators. Projections from year 2023 to 2027 suggest continued growth in life expectancy for most countries, though disparities remain. Mauritius is forecasted to maintain the highest life expectancy in the region with an average exceeding 73 years, while Lesotho and Eswatini are projected to remain at the lower end of the spectrum at approximately 50 to 55 years. Conclusion Projections from the year 2023 to 2027 suggest continued growth in life expectancy for most countries, though stark regional disparities remain. Projections reveal that Mauritius is forecasted to maintain the highest life expectancy in the region with an average exceeding 73 years, while Lesotho and Eswatini are projected to remain at the lower end of the spectrum at approximately 50 to 55 years. Policy Recommendations The study recommends that regional governments implement targeted health interventions, specifically focusing on expanding infant health initiatives and strengthening HIV management frameworks to further enhance regional life expectancy. Contribution By blending classical dynamic econometric panels (GMM) with non-linear machine learning architectures (Random Forest), this study contributes to empirical literature by proving the high explanatory power of combined health-macroeconomic frameworks and providing granular, country-specific forward projections for healthcare planning within sub-Saharan Africa.