Improving the Profitability of Public Transport by Daily Forecasting of Passenger Loads and Bus Trip Distribution

The degree of utilization of passenger vehicle capacity affects the economic component of public transport operation. This is due to the fact that it depends on the number of passengers transported, as well as on the capacity of the passenger vehicle used for transportation. One of the tasks formulated in the state program of transport development of the Republic of Belarus is to achieve full self-sufficiency of public transport operation. One of the ways to achieve this goal can be maximizing the degree of use of passenger vehicle capacity by ensuring its compliance with the existing parameters of passenger flow. In this paper, based on the values of passenger flows in one of the cities of Belarus, obtained as a result of field observations in 2019 and 2024, we calculate an indicator that assesses the degree of utilization of passenger vehicle capacity, the factors that determine it, and the regularities of its change. Based on such calculations, the feasibility of creating a new public transport management technology based on daily forecasting of passenger traffic and distribution of passenger vehicles of different capacity to the routes taking this into account is shown.