From Short-Term Gains to Long-Term Sustainability: Rethinking Irrigation Strategies and Food Import Policies for Long-Term Sustainability

China faces a multifaceted challenge in ensuring food security amid escalating constraints on cropland and water resources. As the nation strives for self-sufficiency in food production, the imperative to maximize crop yields within limited land and water availability intensifies, particularly concerning the sustainable management of groundwater resources. This study investigates how China can balance short-term food production gains with the long-term sustainability of groundwater by optimizing irrigation practices and strategically navigating food import policies, with a focus on the three major staple crops: wheat, rice, and maize.Intensive agricultural systems, especially in water-scarce regions such as the North China Plain, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia, are heavily reliant on groundwater extraction. This dependence poses significant risks of environmental degradation, including groundwater depletion, land subsidence, and reduced aquifer recharge, threatening both agricultural productivity and regional ecosystems. To address these issues, we conducted extensive field-based experiments across China from 2016 to 2020, encompassing 237 site-years of data. These experiments systematically varied irrigation practices to calibrate the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model, ensuring an accurate representation of regional agricultural dynamics and groundwater interactions.Utilizing the calibrated APSIM model, we simulated irrigation demand and crop yields for wheat, rice, and maize under 125 different irrigation strategy combinations (considering both volume and timing) across baseline conditions and four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) climate change scenarios. Additionally, we integrated Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data to assess the availability and trends of groundwater resources across different regions, providing a comprehensive spatial analysis of water sustainability.Our findings identify critical regions where strategic adjustments in irrigation management can significantly enhance food production while preserving groundwater resources. Specifically, optimizing irrigation timing to align with crop water demand and implementing water-saving technologies emerged as effective strategies to reduce groundwater extraction. Under the four SSP climate change scenarios, irrigation demand and crop yields exhibited varying responses, highlighting the necessity for adaptive management practices tailored to specific socioeconomic and climatic futures. In addition to optimizing irrigation, our study emphasizes the importance of a balanced food import policy to alleviate domestic water consumption in food production. By strategically importing certain food commodities, China can reduce the pressure on its limited water resources, thereby enhancing overall water sustainability. This approach complements domestic irrigation improvements and supports the cultivation of wheat, rice, and maize by ensuring that water-intensive demands are managed through a combination of local efficiency and global resource allocation.This research underscores the importance of adopting integrated water management and strategic food import practices to ensure the long-term sustainability of China’s food production systems. The results provide actionable insights for policymakers, facilitating the design of agricultural and trade strategies that effectively balance the maintenance of food security with the preservation of essential groundwater resources for future generations. By transitioning from short-term yield maximization to sustainable irrigation management and informed food import policies, China can secure its food future while safeguarding its critical water resources and environmental integrity.