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The SaaS Apocalypse Fallacy: Why AI Raises the Value of the SaaS Bundle

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<div> <div> <div> In the first week of February 2026, more than one trillion dollars in market capitalization was erased from software stocks. The sell-off carried a specific claim: AI will replace enterprise Software-as-a-Service, and the economics of enterprise software procurement will invert. This paper examines the procurement economics of that claim. It argues that the SaaSpocalypse narrative rests on a category error. AI in its current and near-term delivery form is not an alternative to SaaS. It is SaaS, delivered under contracts that are structurally weaker on identifiable dimensions. Enterprises that replace mature SaaS with in-house AI builds absorb five structural asymmetries the replacement calculus does not count: liability, compliance generation, cost concentration, expertise and maintenance, and integration and data responsibility. For the 2026-2030 enterprise procurement horizon, AI raises the value of the SaaS bundle because the deployer now sees what the bundle was quietly covering. </div> </div> </div>
Elsevier BV
Title: The SaaS Apocalypse Fallacy: Why AI Raises the Value of the SaaS Bundle
Description:
<div> <div> <div> In the first week of February 2026, more than one trillion dollars in market capitalization was erased from software stocks.
The sell-off carried a specific claim: AI will replace enterprise Software-as-a-Service, and the economics of enterprise software procurement will invert.
This paper examines the procurement economics of that claim.
It argues that the SaaSpocalypse narrative rests on a category error.
AI in its current and near-term delivery form is not an alternative to SaaS.
It is SaaS, delivered under contracts that are structurally weaker on identifiable dimensions.
Enterprises that replace mature SaaS with in-house AI builds absorb five structural asymmetries the replacement calculus does not count: liability, compliance generation, cost concentration, expertise and maintenance, and integration and data responsibility.
For the 2026-2030 enterprise procurement horizon, AI raises the value of the SaaS bundle because the deployer now sees what the bundle was quietly covering.
</div> </div> </div>.

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