Systemic impacts of disruptions at maritime chokepoints

Abstract Global trade relies on a small number of strategic passageways, so-called maritime chokepoints, which are vulnerable to disruptions. Yet, the exposure of countries to these disruptions is not known, inhibiting adequate preparedness. Here, we quantify the systemic impacts of maritime chokepoint disruptions subject to a variety of hazards, including conflict, piracy, terrorist attacks, accidental blockages and climatic factors. USD190 billion of trade is expected to be disrupted each year at chokepoints, mainly attributed to geopolitical risk at the Taiwan Strait and Suez Canal, and a combination of hazards affecting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. We estimate that the expected economic risk of chokepoint disruptions, due to delays, rerouting and trade disruptions, is USD23.3 billion per year, driven by rerouting costs as a result of disruptions of the Suez Canal, Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Panama canal, and countries being cut-off from trade in case of disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and Bosporus Strait. Countries most exposed to these economic risks are located in the Middle-East, Africa and Latin America. At a time of heightened geopolitical tensions and climate change, our results help to quantify the implications of these risks, and can assist targeting of resilience interventions within global supply chains.