Analysis of maritime traffic in Algeciras Bay and its surroundings

Algeciras Bay and the Strait of Gibraltar constitute one of the maritime areas with the highest traffic density in Spain and the Western Mediterranean, forming a highly complex operational environment where port traffic, anchorage areas, international transit routes, recreational navigation, fishing activities, and special operations converge. This doctoral research focuses on the analysis of maritime accidents, with particular emphasis on collisions and contacts between vessels [1], within a context characterized by sustained growth in traffic volume, intense port activity, and a unique geopolitical situation arising from the coexistence of Spanish and Gibraltarian jurisdictions. The study is based on the author's professional experience as a Merchant Navy Captain, VTS Controller and Instructor [2] at the Algeciras Maritime Rescue Centre, as well as on the collection and analysis of data from Puertos del Estado [3] [4], Spanish Salvamento Maritimo [5], Algeciras Bay Port Authority and Gibraltar Maritime Authorities [6]. Based on this data, there has been a clear increase in maritime traffic in the bay over the last decade, with the sole exception of the pandemic period, when there was a temporary reduction, particularly significant in passenger and cruise ship traffic. After this period, the recovery has been gradual and sustained, once again increasing the pressure on navigation safety. Algeciras Bay has a complex spatial configuration, with multiple berthing areas, anchorages, pilot boarding areas, marinas and small crafts navigation areas. During the summer months, the simultaneous presence of more than 2,300 pleasure crafts significantly increases the density of small boats traffic, adding an additional risk factor to an already saturated environment. Added to this, is Gibraltar's activity as one of the main bunkering ports in the Mediterranean, with a high number of anchoring, repair and auxiliary services operations, managed by its own VTS service. One of the most critical elements identified is the fragmentation of maritime traffic management. Currently, traffic supervision in the bay is shared and divided between different services: the Spanish Salvamento Maritimo VTS service, the VTS operators dependent on the Algeciras Pilots' Corporation and the Gibraltar VTS, each operating on different VHF channels and with partially overlapping areas of competence. This situation creates operational difficulties, communication problems and, in certain cases, contradictory instructions to ships, increasing the risk of incidents, especially in cautionary areas and during port entry and exit manoeuvres.We are working on the implementation of the new IALA Resolution 1158(32), which replaces 857(20) and adapts the VTS to current technological realities, making it more operational, structured and risk management-oriented [7]. The analysis is expanded to include the human dimension as a determining factor in maritime safety. Based on a survey of active merchant seafarers with recognised experience, the perception of the evolution of working conditions over the last decade is evaluated. The survey has obtained the Ethics Certificate, ratified by the “Comité de Ética en la Investigación con Seres Humanos, sus datos y/o sus muestras CEISH- UPV/EHU”. The results show that 60% of those surveyed perceive a significant or slight deterioration in these conditions, mainly associated with increased workload and reduced crews. These factors, widely documented in scientific literature and in reports by the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) [8], are closely related to the increase in the human factor as a cause of maritime accidents [9]. EMCIP (European Marine Casualty Information Platform) data show that more than 58% of maritime accidents are caused by human factors, with confined waters and high-traffic areas, such as the Algeciras Bay and the Gibraltar Strait, being the environments most prone to collisions [8]. This fact reinforces the need to adopt structural measures to improve traffic organisation and reduce the cognitive and operational burden on crews and control services. ICT disruptions affect GSCs by paralysing port operations, diverting trade routes and increasing operating and freight costs (A.P. Moller-Maersk, 2017; Sangfor Technologies, 2023). The lack of redundancy in critical systems and dependence on external providers amplify the cascading effects of ICT disruptions in maritime networks (Ivanov & Dolgui, 2021). Companies without contingency strategies suffer operational and financial losses, as well as a loss of customer trust, despite having advanced digital infrastructures (A.P. Moller-Maersk, 2017). Maritime operational resilience to ICT disruptions is strengthened through real-time digital visibility, supplier diversification and the integration of emerging technologies (Ivanov & Dolgui, 2021; Liu et al., 2023). These findings form the basis of the study’s final conceptual framework. In this context, the research proposes the feasibility of implementing a Traffic Organisation System (TOS) within Algeciras Bay, designed in coordination with Gibraltar. The creation of a defined traffic lane and an internal caution zone would allow traffic flows to be organised, minimise conflictive crossings and improve the predictability of manoeuvres. Likewise, integrated traffic management, based on harmonised criteria and unified communication protocols, would contribute significantly to reducing the risk of collisions, protecting human life at sea and preserving the marine environment. In conclusion, the preliminary results of this research highlight the urgent need to rethink the current model of maritime traffic management in Algeciras Bay. The sustained increase in traffic, the operational complexity of the area and the decisive influence of the human factor make it essential to adopt advanced organisational solutions, such as the implementation of a TOS, to reliably address the challenges of navigation in one of the most strategic and congested maritime areas in Southern Europe.