Preliminary Risk Assessment of Dam Failure at the Location of the Cukaru Peki Deposit, Bor (Serbia)

Industrial waste landfills, as evidenced by frequent accidents occurring in recent years, are regarded as one of the most hazardous facilities in the world. For the adequate management of a landfill, risk assessments of dam failures should be performed before operations begin. This paper deals with the preliminary risk assessment used for the tailings and pyrite concentrate storage facilities, as well as the drainage waters reservoir, which are currently at the development and construction stage in the Cukaru Peki deposit located in eastern Serbia. The research was conducted to establish the facts and level of risk at an early stage to allow for timely prevention of potential accidents and bring operational practice in line with design requirements. The annual failure probability was estimated using a semi-empirical method, based on the dam stability factor. While, the framework proposed by the New Zealand Society on Large Dams was applied to assess the consequences of potential failures. The risk was assessed as a function of accident probability and the severity of possible consequences, and a 7 × 7 risk matrix was applied for analysis and evaluation. The level of dam failure risk at the location of the Cukaru Peki deposit was preliminarily assessed as moderate and conditionally tolerable, based on a low estimated probability of accident and a significant severity of consequences. Once the operation of these facilities starts risk assessments should be regularly updated, in order to maintain this level, and in accordance with the current situation, the modelling of specific accident scenarios should be included.