Analysis of land cover change and its driving forces in a desert oasis landscape of southern Xinjiang, China

Abstract. The combined effects of drought, warming and the changes in land cover have caused severe land degradation for several decades in the extremely arid desert oases of Southern Xinjiang, Northwest China. This study examined land cover changes during 1990–2008 to characterize and quantify the transformations in the typical oasis of Hotan. Land cover classifications of these images were performed based on the supervised classification scheme integrated with conventional vegetation and soil indexes. Change-detection techniques in remote sensing (RS) and a geographic information system (GIS) were applied to quantify temporal and spatial dynamics of land cover changes. The overall accuracies, Kappa coefficients, and average annual increase rate or decrease rate of land cover classes were calculated to assess classification results and changing rate of land cover. The analysis revealed that major trends of the land cover changes were the notable growth of the oasis and the reduction of the desert–oasis ecotone, which led to accelerated soil salinization and plant deterioration within the oasis. These changes were mainly attributed to the intensified human activities. The results indicated that the newly created agricultural land along the margins of the Hotan oasis could result in more potential areas of land degradation. If no effective measures are taken against the deterioration of the oasis environment, soil erosion caused by land cover change may proceed. The trend of desert moving further inward and the shrinking of the ecotone may lead to potential risks to the eco-environment of the Hotan oasis over the next decades.