Linking Land‐Use/Cover Change With Landscape‐Based Drivers in Contrasting Agro‐Ecological Environments of the East African Rift System

ABSTRACT Understanding land‐use/cover (LUC) change in response to landscape‐based driving forces is essential for regular land‐use/cover monitoring, forecasting, and the formulation of sustainable resource management strategies. However, land‐use/cover change in response to local‐level driving forces has often received major emphasis, while landscape‐based driving forces are typically overlooked in land‐use/cover change analyses. This study explores the process of land‐use/cover change between 1986 and 2024 and its associated driving forces in the humid and sub‐humid highlands of the East African Rift System. Geospatial and binary logistic regression analyses were employed for data analysis. The findings reveal that rapid land‐use/cover change has occurred in the region. The cropland area increased by 105,132.5 ha (12.98%), at the expense of woodland (9.43%), water bodies (0.08%), grassland (7.04%), forestland (0.57%), and marshes (0.37%). Additionally, urban/built‐up areas and bare land expanded rapidly. Furthermore, land‐use/cover transitions are triggered by the interaction of 15 drivers linked to economic, social, and environmental factors. Economic factors such as proximity to markets and roads, decreased the odds of land‐use change by 17.1% (Exp ( B ) = 0.829) and 2.1% (Exp ( B ) = 0.979), respectively. Social factors such as higher population density and greater distance to lakes, increased the odds to land‐use change by 1% (Exp ( B ) = 1.010) and 28.7% (Exp ( B ) = 1.010), respectively. Environmental factors such as moderate slopes reduced the odds of transitions by 15.6% (Exp ( B ) = 0.844), while the presence of bare lands made change far more likely, increasing the odds by 64.6% (Exp ( B ) = 7.460). Therefore, proper land‐use planning and management strategies that consider the trade‐offs between social, economic, and environmental needs are required to mitigate the impacts of land‐use/cover changes.