Increasing Area of Banlaem Mangrove Forest at Nakhon Si Thammarat in Southern Thailand: Land Cover Changes and Predictive Models

Land cover changes significantly affect mangrove forests, driven by both anthropogenic activities and natural processes. The Banlaem mangrove in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand, supports numerous mangrove plantation projects but lacks comprehensive assessments and monitoring related to land cover changes. This study aimed to (1) investigate land cover changes in the Banlaem mangrove from 1995 to 2023, and (2) generate a predictive model for future land cover changes. For land cover assessment, satellite imagery from multiple sources, including Sentinel-2 (Level 2A) and Landsat (Collection 2 Level 2), was utilized to examine and classify changes in mangrove cover within the Banlaem mangrove forest from 1995 to 2023, using supervised classification with the maximum likelihood algorithm. Various regression models were analysed to develop a predictive model based on area size and time. The mangrove area in the Banlaem mangrove forest steadily grew throughout the study period, with the total area increasing from 56.16 ha in 1995 to 527.55 ha in 2023. This study represents the first analysis of changes in the Banlaem mangrove cover. Throughout the tested models, they reveal an unclear pattern of mangrove expansion, yet they indicate a high rate of expansion in the Banlaem mangrove forest. In addition, these results are expected to encourage greater community involvement in the monitoring and management of the Banlaem mangrove. We recommend establishing a community monitoring network to engage local residents in tracking changes in mangrove cover, supported by training and resources.