Modelling the Dynamics of Demography in the Dutch Roman Limes Zone: A Revised Model

AbstractIn this chapter, a simulation model for better understanding the population dynamics of the limes zone is presented, building on our earlier study on the possible effects of recruitment of soldiers for the Roman army (Verhagen et al., Modelling the dynamics of demography in the Dutch limes zone. In: Multi-, inter- and transdisciplinary research in landscape archaeology. Proceedings of LAC 2014 Conference, Rome, 19–20 September 2014. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam. https://doi.org/10.5463/lac.2014.62, 2016a). In this earlier study, a number of questions were raised concerning the realism of using estimates from historical demographical sources for understanding the population dynamics of the region. In the current paper, the available data sets, approaches and hypotheses regarding fertility and mortality in the Roman period are re-assessed, together with the available archaeological evidence on the population dynamics of the region. A revised model is then presented that allows for more refined experimenting with various demographic scenarios, showing that a much larger number of parameters can be responsible for changes in population growth than is often assumed in archaeological studies. In particular, marriage strategies would seem to play an important role in regulating the number of births. The model remains a work in progress that can be further refined and linked to models of settlement and land use development.