Real-time forecast of influenza outbreak using dynamic network marker based on minimum spanning tree

Abstract Background: The influenza pandemic is a wide-ranging threat to people’s health and property all over the world. Developing effective strategies for predicting the influenza outbreak which may prevent or at least get ready for a new influenza pandemic is now a top global public health priority.Methods: Owing to the complexity of influenza outbreaks that are usually involved with spatial and temporal characteristics of both biological and social systems, however, it is a challenging task to achieve the real-time monitoring of influenza outbreaks. In this study, by exploring the rich dynamical information of the city network during influenza outbreaks, we developed a computational method, the minimum-spanning-tree-based dynamical network marker (MST-DNM), to identify the tipping point or critical stage prior to the influenza outbreak.Results: With historical records of influenza outpatients between 2009 and 2018, the MST-DNM strategy has been validated by accurate predictions of the influenza outbreaks in three Japanese cities/regions respectively, i.e., Tokyo, Osaka, Hokkaido. These successful applications show that the early-warning signal was detected 4 weeks on average ahead of each influenza outbreak.Conclusion: The results show that our method is of considerable potential in the practice of public health surveillance.