Geographical characteristics and influencing factors of influenza epidemic in Hubei, China from 2009 to 2019

Abstract Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease to which the population is generally susceptible and has an important impact on public health. Time series analysis and geospatial analysis were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of influenza epidemic and its influencing factors in 103 counties in Hubei Province from 2009 to 2019, and the results showed that: 1) Influenza in Hubei Province mostly occurs in winter and spring, and the influenza epidemic is high from December to March every year, and there is an aggravating trend of influenza epidemic in recent years. 2) There were significant spatial and urban-rural differences in influenza prevalence in Hubei Province, with the eastern region being more serious than the central and western region, and the urban region more serious than the rural region. The hot spot areas of interannual variation of influenza were mainly distributed in the east and west of Hubei province, and the cold spot areas were distributed in the north-central of Hubei province. In addition, the cold hot spot areas of influenza epidemic varied from season to season. 3) The seasonal variation of influenza epidemic in Hubei Province is mainly governed by meteorological factors such as temperature, sunshine, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, etc. Low temperature, less rain, less sunshine, low wind speed and humid weather will increase the probability of influenza; the interannual variation and spatial variation of influenza epidemic is mainly influenced by socio-economic factors such as road density, number of beds per 1,000 people, urbanization rate and population density, and the intensity of the effect of these factors on influenza incidence rate in Hubei Province has significant spatial variation, but in general, the formation of spatial variation of influenza in Hubei Province is still the result of the joint action of socio-economic factors and natural meteorological factors.