Expectations for the Role of Hydrogen and Its Derivatives in the Different Sectors through Analysis of the IEA-STEPS, IEA-NZE, IRENA-PES, and IRENA-1.5°C Scenarios

Recently, worldwide attention toward hydrogen and its derivatives as alternative carbon-free or low-carbon options for the electricity sector, the transport sector, and the industry sector increased. Several projects in the field of low-emissions hydrogen production (particularly electrolysis-based green hydrogen) were either constructed or were analyzed in terms of feasibility. This study aims at summarizing some expectations of the level at which hydrogen and its derivatives can spread into the global economy, under two scenarios. The first scenario corresponds to a business-as-usual (BAU) pathway, where the world proceeds with the same existing policies and targets for emissions and low-carbon energy transition. This forms a lower bound for the level of hydrogen role. The second scenario corresponds to an emissions-conscious pathway, where governments cooperate to implement necessary changes to decarbonize the economy by 2050 with net zero (or even negative) emissions of carbon dioxide; thus, limiting the rise in the global mean surface temperature to 1.5 °C by 2100 compared to pre-industrial periods. This forms an upper bound for the level of hydrogen role.The study utilizes the latest release (edition year 2023, 26th edition) of the annual comprehensive report of IEA (International Energy Agency), which is WEO (World Energy Outlook), as well as the latest release (edition year 2023, 3rd edition) of the annual comprehensive report of IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency), which is WETO (World Energy Transitions Outlook). For the IEA-WEO report, the business-as-usual scenario is STEPS (Stated “Energy” Policies Scenario), and the emissions-conscious scenario is NZE (Net Zero Emissions by 2050). For the IRENA-WETO report, the business-as-usual scenario is PES (Planned Energy Scenario), and the emissions-conscious scenario is 1.5°C.Through the results presented here, it becomes possible to infer the realistic range of producing and utilizing hydrogen and its derivatives. In addition, the study allows estimating the difference between the models used in WEO and WETO, through identifying different predictions for similar variables. The study covers miscellaneous variables related to energy and emissions other than hydrogen, which are helpful in establishing a good view about how the world may look like in 2030 and 2050. Some barriers (such as the uncompetitive levelized cost of electrolysis-based green hydrogen) and drivers (such as the German H2Global initiative) for the hydrogen economy are also discussed. The study finds that a large-scale utilization of hydrogen or its derivatives as a source of energy is highly uncertain, and it can be reached slowly with more than two decades to mature.