Historijski pregled djelovanja ruske politike u Bosni i Hercegovini (1992- 2022)

With the onset of Russia's aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, a new chapter in world history opened. Russia is drawn to weakness, and given its position, organization, the indifference of the international community, the absence of adequate security and defense mechanisms, and the existence of strong Serbian anti-state forces, it is not excluded that Bosnia and Herzegovina could become a new flashpoint or a space for political maneuvering. Russian influence in Bosnia and Herzegovina has been evident for 473 years, dating back to the 16th century when Russia began to „dream“ of becoming a world center and a global power, particularly pronounced during the 19th and 20th centuries. After the restoration of Bosnia and Herzegovina's independence, Russia remained limited but active due to its own weaknesses. Its activity during the aggression against the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the genocide against the Bosniaks manifested in maintaining an arms embargo on the legitimate and legal government of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, propaganda activities, attempts at mediation between the Serbian occupying forces and the international community, and the covert sending of Russian volunteers who fought on the side of the quasi-state entity „Republika Srpska.“ However, due to Russia's weaknesses after the dissolution of the USSR, it did not achieve excessive influence in Bosnia and Herzegovina but ensured a legitimate presence. Under Vladimir Putin's leadership, Russia began expanding its influence in the Balkans in 2008, with key elements of Russian policy reflected in historical Orthodox ties, arms sales, and energy trade. All elements of Russian political presence can be seen in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but the particular danger lies in Russian support for Serbian secessionist forces, which have consistently attacked the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina for over 30 years. Especially incendiary rhetoric from Russia regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina can be traced back to 2020 when Igor Kalabuhov was appointed as the Russian ambassador in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since the beginning of his mandate, there has been evident support for undermining the provisions of the Dayton Peace Agreement, with the key element of peace in Dayton—the function of the High Representative—coming under increasing attack.