Analysis of Factors Influencing Effective Utilization Coefficient of Irrigation Water in the Manas River Basin

The factors influencing the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water are not understood well. It is usually considered that this coefficient is lower in areas with large-scale irrigation. With this background, we analyzed the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water using the analytic hierarchy process using data from 2014 to 2019 in Shihezi City, Xinjiang. The weights of the influencing factors on the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water in different irrigation areas were analyzed. Predictions of the coefficient’s values for different years were made by understanding the trends based on the grey model. The results show that the scale of the irrigation area is not the only factor determining the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water. Irrigation technology, organizational integrity, crop types, water price management, local economic level, and channel seepage prevention are the most critical factors affecting the effective use of irrigation water. The grey model prediction results show that the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water will continuously increase and reach 0.7204 in 2029. This research can serve as a reference for government authorities to make scientific decisions on water-saving projects in irrigation districts in terms of management, operation, and investment.