A Plan for Solving the Rally Puzzle

This chapter outlines the comparative-historical research framework that subsequent chapters apply to detect the conditions that have led to the emergence of rally-round-the-flag outcomes in the United States since 1950. Three analytic principles distinguish the investigation from other attempts to explain the rally phenomenon. First, rally periods are distinguished from periods in which presidential approval ratings increased only slightly. Second, no single characteristic of an event can explain why a rally followed or did not follow the event, because this inevitably leads to a probabilistic argument that leaves some cases unexplained; thus, the best approach is to identify clusters of conditions that have jointly produced a rally outcome. Third, no single explanation fits all seemingly similar outcomes (i.e., multiple pathways may have led to the emergence of rallies). The chapter explains the comparative historical research method applied in this book, how cases were selected, and how “rally” was coded.