Rising Waters: Designing Climate-Resilient Urban Drainage System

Abstract Pakistan is increasingly susceptible to extreme weather events driven by climate change. The country faced unprecedented monsoon rainfall during the summer of 2022, resulting in the most severe flooding in its history. Such impacts of climate change have the potential to initiate significant negative feedback loops that could profoundly affect urban infrastructure. This study underscores the urgent need to modify urban infrastructure in response to evolving climatic conditions by assessing the effects of climate change on drainage systems in Phase 05 Hayatabad, Peshawar. The research aims to estimate the potential impacts on urban drainage systems. The methodology involves analyzing precipitation data from the past decade to construct intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, which are vital for designing resilient infrastructure, using the Gumbel approach. The study further employs the CMHYD tool for downscaling and bias correction of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios. This data is integrated into the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to develop a resilient drainage infrastructure system incorporating climate projections and historical data. This comprehensive approach identifies potential cost increases due to climate change and provides practical recommendations for enhancing infrastructure resilience in Peshawar and similar cities. The study offers critical insights for policymakers and urban planners on developing infrastructure systems capable of withstanding future climate challenges, thereby promoting sustainable urban development.