Forecasting Wheat and Grass Yields from Climatic Factors

A study of the factors of climate and their relation to wheat and short grass yields was conducted at Hays, Kansas. Statistical correlations were made between the elements of the climate and wheat and short grass yields, also correlations between elements of the climate. A 22-year period was used for forecasting short grass yields and a 30-year period for wheat. In the study, September temperature, spring temperature and spring precipitation, all showed a significant correlation when compared statistically to short grass yields. September temperature was the only element of fall climate that showed a significant amount of correlation when compared to the following year’s grass yields. September temperatures can accurately be used to forecast average short grass production nearly a year prior to harvesting. Spring temperature and spring precipitation accounted for 75 percent of the variability in short grass yields. When comparing September and May soil moisture data to short grass yields, no correlation existed in the study at Hays, Kansas. A highly significant negative correlation existed between temperature and precipitation at Hays, Kansas. Spring temperature, fall precipitation and September precipitation, all showed a significant correlation when compared statistically with wheat production. Fall precipitation, approximately at the time of planting, can accurately be used to forecast average wheat production.