Search engine for discovering works of Art, research articles, and books related to Art and Culture
Javascript must be enabled to continue!
Experimental Political Betting Markets and the 2004 Election
View through CrossRef
Betting on elections has been of interest to economists and political scientists for some time. We recently persuaded TradeSports to run experimental contingent betting markets, in which one bets on whether President Bush will be re-elected, conditional on other specified events occurring. Early results suggest that market participants strongly believe that Osama bin Ladens capture would have a substantial effect on President Bushs electoral fortunes, and interestingly that the chance of his capture peaks just before the election. More generally, these markets suggest that issues outside the campaign - like the state of the economy, and progress on the war on terror - are the key factors in the forthcoming election.
Title: Experimental Political Betting Markets and the 2004 Election
Description:
Betting on elections has been of interest to economists and political scientists for some time.
We recently persuaded TradeSports to run experimental contingent betting markets, in which one bets on whether President Bush will be re-elected, conditional on other specified events occurring.
Early results suggest that market participants strongly believe that Osama bin Ladens capture would have a substantial effect on President Bushs electoral fortunes, and interestingly that the chance of his capture peaks just before the election.
More generally, these markets suggest that issues outside the campaign - like the state of the economy, and progress on the war on terror - are the key factors in the forthcoming election.
Related Results
Elections and election fraud in Georgia and Armenia
Elections and election fraud in Georgia and Armenia
Elections on unfair playing fields are common. Yet election day fraud can result in authoritarians losing office. The freer the environment, the more an authoritarian must rely on ...
Trust in Elections
Trust in Elections
Abstract
The sometimes violent movement to reject the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election draws our attention to the topic of trust in the institution of ...
Preparing and comparing subtitles for quasi-experimental and experimental research in audiovisual translation
studies
Preparing and comparing subtitles for quasi-experimental and experimental research in audiovisual translation
studies
Abstract
Empirical research on cognitive processing in AVT has been on the rise in recent years. A number of overarching
works have recommended ...
The concealed gift
The concealed gift
If homo economicus exists anywhere, surely he must be found among financial traders. Amid the shouting and shoving of trading pits and the manic clicking and phone slamming of elec...
State Legislative Elections, 1967–2003: Announcing the Completion of a Cleaned and Updated Dataset
State Legislative Elections, 1967–2003: Announcing the Completion of a Cleaned and Updated Dataset
More than 15 years—nine election cycles—have passed since a comprehensive set of state legislative election data was compiled and made available to researchers and practitioners: t...
The Political Economy of Gubernatorial Smokestack Chasing: Bad Policy and Bad Politics?
The Political Economy of Gubernatorial Smokestack Chasing: Bad Policy and Bad Politics?
AbstractWhy do states persist in offering large financial incentives to induce firms to relocate to or expand in the state, a practice commonly derided as “smokestack chasing?” The...
Experimental research in automatic subtitling
Experimental research in automatic subtitling
Abstract
Recent developments in neural machine translation, and especially speech translation, are gradually but firmly entering the field of audiovisual translation (AVT). Automat...
THE MUSIC OF LAURENCE CRANE AND A POST-EXPERIMENTAL PERFORMANCE PRACTICE
THE MUSIC OF LAURENCE CRANE AND A POST-EXPERIMENTAL PERFORMANCE PRACTICE
AbstractLaurence Crane's music is often described as experimental or considered as a continuation of the English experimental tradition. In this first extended examination of Crane...
Recent Results
Illustrations et modèles mentaux dans la compréhension de textes
Illustrations et modèles mentaux dans la compréhension de textes
Summary: Illustrations and mental models in text comprehension.
We know that graphics in texts can be effective for learning, but we do not have much knowledge about how text ...
Gerard Manley Hopkins’s Incarnational Ecology
Gerard Manley Hopkins’s Incarnational Ecology
This essay examines Hopkins’s “Binsey Poplars” from an incarnational theological lens. Such a reading negotiates seemingly incongruent arguments put forth by Post, who argues that ...
Divine Command Theory in Early Franciscan Thought: A Response to the Autonomy Objection
Divine Command Theory in Early Franciscan Thought: A Response to the Autonomy Objection
In recent years, many scholars have bemoaned the gradual demise of traditional virtue ethics, and its eventual replacement in the later Middle Ages by divine command theory. Where ...
The Via Claudia Nova
The Via Claudia Nova
At the period when, after a process of development extending over almost five centuries, the road-system of ancient Italy had attained to its maturity, we find that Rome was connec...
Your session has timed out for security reasons.