Transit Station Area Development and Demographic Outcomes

This report is the first comprehensive assessment of the extent to which transit station areas attract jobs, people and households, influence commuting mode choice, reduce vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) as well as transportation costs, influence real estate value, and engender gentrification. Research reported in this article is based on 57 transit systems serving 42 metropolitan areas between the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and the global COVID-19 pandemic of 2020-2023. Station areas, comprised of land within 800 meters of light rail transit (LRT), streetcar transit (SCT), bus rapid transit (BRT), and commuter rail transit (CRT) stations added millions of new jobs and hundreds of thousands of new households during the study period. Overall, transit station areas attracted more than 20 percent of all new jobs as well as more than 20 percent of all new households in their regions, yet they comprise less than one percent of the urbanized land area in those regions. Growth around transit stations was dominated by Non-White persons along with large shares of regional growth from among all household types and householders under 65 years of age. Although the median household income of LRT and SCT station areas rose faster than their regions during the study period, this was not the case with respect to CRT and BRT station areas. Moreover, transit station areas accounted for a large share of their regions’ change in renters. In addition, transit station areas gained a large share of regional workers who use transit, walked, or biked to work. Indeed, even before the pandemic, station areas added large shares of all workers in the region who worked from home. Furthermore, the closer households are to transit stations, the lower their annual VKT with associated transportation costs savings. However, the relationship between commercial rents and proximity to transit stations is mixed with mostly negative or statistically insignificant outcomes. These results call into question the efficacy of transit station planning, location, and design for most transit station areas if their intent is to achieve desired real estate investment outcomes. Nonetheless, there are several exemplars among individual systems to warrant emulating. Evidence of gentrification is also mixed with the exception that it is not evident around BRT station areas. Nevertheless, as demand grows for development near transit stations, gentrification pressures will increase. Policy approaches to mitigating adverse gentrification outcomes are outlined. Results from research reported in this article lead to implications that are offered for post-pandemic transit policy and planning on the theme of making transit station areas more attractive to people who seek walkable communities with multimodal options.