Phenomenological Modelling

Detecting causal interactions among climatic, environmental, and human forces in complex biophysical systems is essential for understanding how these systems function and how public policies can be devised that protect the flow of essential services to biological diversity, agriculture, and other core economic activities. Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) detects causal networks in real-world systems diagnosed with deterministic, low-dimension, and nonlinear dynamics. If CCM detects correspondence between phase spaces reconstructed from observed time series variables, then the variables are determined to causally interact in the same dynamic system. CCM can give false positives by misconstruing synchronized variables as causally interactive. Extended (delayed) CCM screens for false positives among synchronized variables.