Military Expenditures, Insecurity, and Food Prices in Nigeria

This study investigated the link between military expenditures, insecurity and food prices in Nigeria from 2005 to 2024. The specific objectives were to investigate the effect of military expenditures on insecurity in Nigeria and to determine the effect of insecurity on food prices in Nigeria. Secondary data from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, National Bureau of Statistics and the World Bank Indicators, etc were employed in the study. The study adopted the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) to analyze the secondary data. The result of the long- run ARDL estimation of the food price equation revealed that insecurity has a positive and insignificant effect on food prices, minimum wage has a positive and insignificant effect on food prices, imports has a positive and significant effect on food prices, exports has a negative and significant effect of food prices, exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on food prices while agricultural outputs has a negative and significant effect on food prices in the long run period. Furthermore, the result of the long- run ARDL estimation of the insecurity equation revealed that military expenditures has a positive and insignificant effect on insecurity, unemployment rate has a positive and significant effect on insecurity, poverty headcount has a negative and significant effect on insecurity, inflation rate has a positive and significant effect on insecurity while gross fixed capital formation has a negative and insignificant effect on insecurity in the long run period. The study concluded that the positive but insignificant relationship between insecurity and food prices in Nigeria suggests that insecurity alone does not fully explain fluctuations in food prices. It was also concluded that the positive but insignificant relationship between military expenditure and insecurity implies that increasing defense budgets alone cannot solve Nigeria’s security crisis. Instead, Nigeria must adopt a broader security architecture that addresses economic, social, and political drivers of conflict alongside military measures. Based on the findings and conclusions it was recommended that local communities should prioritized strengthening the rural security to protect agricultural activities. Also, the government should encourage farmers to adopt insurance schemes that protect against losses due to conflict or instability. More so, government should prioritize comprehensive security reforms beyond military spending. Furthermore, the government should ensure that military budgets are efficiently allocated, managed, and monitored, among others.