Food Insecurity Transition Among Agricultural Households In Nigeria

ABSTRACT: Hunger continues to be on the increase and food crises remain a developmental challenge. The incidence of food insecurity in the country has heightened in recent years due to unprecedented natural hazards, economic shocks and climate change, which have eroded livelihoods and worsened the country’s performance in food security-related indices. We therefore used the panel data from Nigeria to examine the food insecurity transition among agricultural households. The data covered four rounds. The food insecurity status of agricultural households was estimated using the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke measure. We explained the interaction among the states of food security of agricultural households across different periods using the food insecurity transition matrix. The determinants of food insecurity were explored using the dynamic probit model. The model addressed unobserved heterogeneity, state dependency, and serial correlation arising from the data and model. Findings revealed that the mean food expenditure increased across the period. Similarly, mean per capita food expenditure also increased across periods except for the 2012/2013 period where it dropped slightly. We observed a rising incidence of food insecurity across the period from 44.1% in 2010/2011 to 53.4% in 2018/2019 representing a 21.1% increase in food insecurity incidence. Widening inequality exists even among the food insecure. Our findings revealed that 87.6% of households are transitorily food insecure, 5.5% are chronically food insecure and 7% are food secured. The significant factors driving food insecurity across the period were the area of land under cultivation, the fall in the price of outputs, and the increase in the price of major food items. Coping strategies employed were eating less preferred foods, restriction in diversity of foods eaten, limiting food portions, and minimizing the frequency of meal consumption. It is therefore important that the government encourage the adoption of yield-enhancing technologies to ensure household food security. Rising prices of major food items and fall in output price gives a cause for concern over the macroeconomic environment in the country, which fuels rising food prices. Policymakers should exercise caution when implementing exchange rate policies that may affect food and output prices, given the impact they have on the livelihood and household security of smallholders.