Prediction of potential mangrove distributions in the Beibu Gulf of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China using the MaxEnt model

Abstract Context The restoration of mangroves is an significant challenge within the protection of coastal habitats. Predicting the distribution of dominant species in mangrove communities is essential for the appropriate selection of species and spatial planning for restoration. Objectives We explored the spatial distribution of six mangrove species including their related environmental factors, thereby identifying potentially suitable habitats for mangrove protection and restoration. Methods Based on six dominant mangrove species that occur in the Beibu Gulf of Guangxi, we used linear correlation analysis to screen environmental factors. In addition, we used the maximum entropy model to analyze the spatial distribution of potentially suitable areas for mangrove afforestation. Based on spatial superposition analysis, we identified mangrove conservation and restoration hot spots. Results Our findings indicate that the main factors affecting the distribution of suitable mangrove habitat in the Beibu Gulf are topographic factors, followed by bioclimatic factors, land-use type, marine salinity, and substrate type. We identified 13,816 hm2 of prime mangrove habitat in the Beibu Gulf, primarily distributed in protected areas. The protection rate for existing mangroves was approximately 42.62%. Conclusions We identified the dominant environmental factors and their thresholds for the distribution of six mangrove species and identified the spatial distribution of individual species and location of suitable rehabilitation sites. According to the predicted spatial distribution of mangrove plants, our findings suggest that mangrove restoration should be based on suitable species and sites.