The influence of limited airport capacity on passengers' airport choice in a decentralised airport environment

This paper examines the impact of limited airport capacity on the airport choice of individual air travellers. The quantitative analysis is based on a nested logit model, enhanced to allow for capacity constraints at airports and to improve model applicability in the real world. The paper starts by describing the main idea of the model and goes on to consider airport choice behaviour in the Cologne region in a capacity-constrained decentralised airport environment. To elaborate the impact of limited airport capacity on passenger choice, three different scenarios are analysed. In this manner it is possible to illustrate the complex distributional changes in airport choice by market segment, trip origin and trip destination. This research aims to show the mutual dependence among airports operating in a decentralised environment in which some airports do not have the capacity to meet their full demand potential. In such an environment, capacity constraints at one airport may lead to spill-over effects and thus influence air travel demand served elsewhere. In some cases, this may even lead to new capacity constraints at these airports.