Lapsation Risk: Takaful Operators In Malaysia

Insurance serves as a tool for risk management. Takaful is an Islamic insurance where the concepts of mutual cooperation (ta’awun) and donation (tabarru’) are used as the main pillars. Apart from the usual market and credit risk, lapsation risk is one of the main risks faced by a life insurer. It is important to determine factors that may influence policy lapsation as it could affect the solvency and the profitability of insurance or a Takaful operator. Therefore, the relationship between surrender rates and economic variables (Unemployment Rate, Real Interest Rate, Growth Domestic Product (GDP), Inflation - Annual % change in Consumer Price Index and Stock Market Price Index (%) ) were examined for Takaful operator ordinary life and unit investment link products. Out of sample forecast was performed for 2019 to 2020 surrender rates for Takaful operator ordinary life and unit investment link products. Panel data model was applied for both purposes as the method is viable to overcome small sample size issue. The empirical findings revealed that the economic variable displayed a different impact on the surrender rate for both products. Both ordinary life and investment linked products exhibited a significant relationship between unemployment rate and surrender rate; in which higher unemployment rate led to increased surrender rate. Stock also had a statistically significant impact on the surrender rate of both products. Meanwhile, interest rate had an insignificant link with the surrender rate of both products. This outcome is in agreement with several past studies that reported no real relationship between interest rate and surrender rate; thus disregarding the infamous interest rate hypothesis. Lastly, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) displayed an insignificant correlation with the surrender rate of both products. By using Pool OLS model, the trend for ordinary life product decreased in 2020 for all Takaful operators. As for investment linked products, a decreasing trend was noted from 2019 to 2020; the lowest and the highest forecast rates in 2019 were ascribed to Takaful Ikhlas and Takaful Malaysia, respectively.