A Refined Rural Settlements Simulation Considering the Competition Relationship among the Internal Land Use Types: A Case Study of Pinggu District

Simulating the future evolution of the internal land use structure of rural settlements (RSILUS) is vital for rural land management. However, previous simulation studies have mostly regarded rural settlements as a whole, thereby ignoring their internal structural variations. In this paper, as an example, we select Pinggu District, which has experienced the impact of rapid urbanization and has an unstable rural land use structure (LUS); then, we examine the driving factors of the changes in the RSILUS, construct a cellular automata (CA)–Markov simulation model specifying the RSILUS, and simulate its changes in 2025. The results indicate the following. (1) The influencing factors of various land use changes in rural settlements in Pinggu District differ significantly. Basic land, such as living functional land, is greatly influenced by natural resources, whereas production functional land is subject to socioeconomic factors. (2) The simulation results demonstrate that from 2015 to 2025, the production and living functional land areas of rural settlements will decrease as a whole. Accordingly, the distribution of rural public service land (RPSL) will tend to remain stable, and the trends of land use abandonment and functional degradation will continue as rural areas continue to recede. Our study enriches the research on rural land use systems by refining the simulation of rural settlements to focus on their internal structure. The differentiation and complexity of the changes in rural LUS types further suggests that rural planning and renewal should adapt to the changing conditions of the RSILUS, and the LUS should be adjusted to improve the constructed environment in human settlements and equalize urban and rural areas.