Spatial Pattern Evolution and Driving Mechanism of Rural Settlements in Rapidly Urbanized Areas: A Case Study of Jiangning District in Nanjing City, China

Rural settlement is an important part of studying the relationship between humans and land; it is highly significant in revealing the evolution, driving mechanism and reconstruction scheme of rural settlement pattern. In this paper, Jiangning District, a rapidly urbanized area, was selected as a typical case. Using remote sensing image data, the landscape pattern index, the rank-scale law, the local hot spot-detection model, and the geographical-detector were comprehensively used to analyze the rural settlements pattern evolution and driving mechanism in the rapidly urbanized areas. The results are as follows: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the number of rural settlements showed a trend of large-scale reduction, and the settlements scale system was relatively uniform in Jiangning. The settlements scale had the autocorrelation characteristics of spatial agglomeration, and the local hotspot agglomeration pattern was significant. (2) The spatial distribution of rural settlements in Jiangning showed an “agglomeration” pattern, and the settlements density showed a “multi-core” distribution characteristic. (3) The pattern of rural settlements in Jiangning was shaped by natural environmental factors such as topography, water system and cultivated land resources; economic social factors such as agricultural population, per capita GDP, distance from town, and policy and system were the leading factors that promoted the settlements’ pattern evolution in Jiangning, and the interaction between the factors could enhance the interpretation of the settlements’ pattern evolution. The research can provide a reference for optimizing the spatial layout of settlements in rapidly urbanized areas.