Nationalism, Balance of Power, and World Order: Untangling Neorealism's Troubled Relationship With Nationalism

ABSTRACT While many explain the crisis of the liberal international order through nationalism, its treatment by neorealist scholars remains frustrating. Untangling the nationalism–neorealism relationship would help explain the current crisis and enhance neorealism's explanatory power. First, this article reviews and critically assesses neorealist scholarship (defensive, offensive and neoclassical realism) about nationalism. Then, using these insights, I propose a distinctively neorealist theory of nationalism. International power shifts reshape nationalism, which, in turn, conditions the behaviour and discourse of the great powers. Rising material capabilities foster offensive nationalism; diminishing capabilities foster defensive nationalism. Hence, global power shifts—foremost the United States' decline relative to China and Russia—transformed the great powers' nationalism, breaking the post‐Cold War order. This approach enables predictions about nationalism's future. If the global power distribution stabilises, the ‘distribution’ of nationalism should stabilise, too; the evolution of nationalism shows a degree of predictability. Pursuing a ‘neorealist nationalism’ research agenda helps tackle fundamental questions about the international order.