Rural depopulation on agricultural technological choice in China

ABSTRACT: Rural depopulation is an inevitable trend due to urbanization and industrial development, and it is a common phenomenon in industrialized countries. The classic theory of induced technological innovation proposed by HAYAMI & RUTTAN (1971) explains the change in agricultural technology during the process of rural depopulation. This paper tests the Hayami-Ruttan induced technological innovation theory from the perspective of agricultural technology choice in the process of rural depopulation. We sort out the influence mechanism of rural depopulation on the choice of agricultural technology from four aspects, namely, factor substitution effect, demand scale effect, conditional bottleneck effect, and agricultural comparative benefit. Using the difference between the rural registered population and the permanent population, we comprehensively compiled the data on the net outflow rate of the rural population from 2005 to 2018 in 313 prefecture-level cities, and reach conclusions through panel regression. The results showed that rural depopulation is not necessarily conducive to labor-saving technological choices, but is conducive to the land-saving technological choice. However, rural depopulation promotes labor-saving technological choices when the population reaches a certain level. The conclusion is not completely consistent with the theory of Hayami-Ruttan, it reflects an idiographic feature of the Chinese environment.