A Theoretical Account of Turkish Foreign Policy under the AKP

Turkish foreign policy has evolved significantly in different directions since 2002. The chapter sheds light on Turkey’s foreign policy during this period and argues that neoclassical realism, which successfully merges the impact of internal and external factors, is the most helpful theoretical perspective to understand this evolution. Turkey is a middle power country located in a delicate regional environment. Structural changes in the dynamics of politics at international and regional levels have produced immense effects on how Turkey’s rulers have defined Turkey’s foreign policy interests and behaviors. While systemic factors have had a strong influence on Turkish foreign policy, their impact has been mediated via the perceptions and interpretations of Turkish ruling elites. Accordingly, the political ideology and interests of these elites have shaped their interpretations of and responses to external developments. Building on this framework, the chapter analyzes Turkish foreign policy since 2002 in three periods: realist pro-Westernism shaping Turkish foreign policy decisively between 2002 and 2011; liberal assertiveness between 2011 and 2015; and re-securitization since 2015. Each period corresponds to a different set of external and internal factors pushing Turkish decision makers to pursue different foreign policies.