Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon Could Be Halved by Zero Deforestation Commitments

Deforestation for agriculture is the primary threat to global aboveground carbon stocks. In the absence of strong territorial-governance, zero-deforestation commitments (ZDCs), corporate policies to decouple food production from deforestation, remain a central tool to combat this issue.  Yet evidence on their effectiveness remains mixed. To advance understanding of ZDCs potential at reducing deforestation, we developed the first spatially explicit estimates of farmers exposure to ZDC companies in the Brazilian Amazon cattle sector in terms of market share and evaluated how variation in this exposure influenced deforestation. We find the G4 Agreement, the most widespread and strongly implemented cattle ZDC, reduced deforestation by 7,000±4,000 km2 (15±8%) and had all firms adopted an effective ZDC, deforestation could have dropped by 24,000±13,000 km2  (50±28%). These results for the world’s principal deforestation hotspot suggests supply chain policies can substantially reduce deforestation, but their effectiveness is contingent on increasing adoption and implementation through import regulations