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Modified Munich Chain-Ladder Method
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The Munich chain-ladder reserving method was introduced on an axiomatic basis. We analyze these axioms and we define a modified Munich chain-ladder reserving method which is based on an explicit stochastic model. This stochastic model then allows to consider claims prediction and prediction uncertainty for the Munich chain-ladder reserving method in a consistent way.
Title: Modified Munich Chain-Ladder Method
Description:
The Munich chain-ladder reserving method was introduced on an axiomatic basis.
We analyze these axioms and we define a modified Munich chain-ladder reserving method which is based on an explicit stochastic model.
This stochastic model then allows to consider claims prediction and prediction uncertainty for the Munich chain-ladder reserving method in a consistent way.
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