Conclusion

Abstract The final chapter concludes the book by summarizing the findings and comparatively evaluating the theoretical expectations in light of the empirical evidence. We show that the decision between defection and repression in dictators’ endgames reflects the combination of benefits of repression and the likelihood of military leaders remaining in office despite defection. In turn, the potential benefits of siding with the opposition and the likelihood of coup success affect the decision of military defectors to stage a coup or not. We then compare empirical patterns across the three “waves” of endgames studied in this book and briefly discuss to what extent our arguments travel to post-2014 endgames. The chapter closes by discussing the implications of our findings for the future academic study and political practice of mass protests in authoritarian regimes.