Carbon sequestration costs and spatial spillover effects in China's collective forests

Abstract Background Global climate change is one of the major challenges facing the world today, and forests play a crucial role as significant carbon sinks and providers of ecosystem services in mitigating climate change and protecting the environment. China, as one of the largest developing countries globally, owns 60% of its forest resources collectively. Evaluating the carbon sequestration cost of collective forests not only helps assess the contribution of China’s forest resources to global climate change mitigation but also provides important evidence for formulating relevant policies and measures. Results Over the past 30 years, the carbon sequestration cost of collective forests in China has shown an overall upward trend. Except for coastal provinces, southern collective forest areas, as well as some southwestern and northeastern regions, have the advantage of lower carbon sequestration costs. Furthermore, LSTM network predictions indicate that the carbon sequestration cost of collective forests in China will continue to rise. By 2030, the average carbon sequestration cost of collective forests is projected to reach 125 CNY per ton(= 16.06 Euros/t). Additionally, there is spatial correlation in the carbon sequestration cost of collective forests. Timber production, labor costs, and labor prices have negative spatial spillover effects on carbon sequestration costs, while land opportunity costs, forest accumulation, and rural resident consumption have positive spatial spillover effects. Conclusion The results of this study indicate regional disparities in the spatial distribution of carbon sequestration costs of collective forests, with an undeniable upward trend in future cost growth. It is essential to focus on areas with lower carbon sequestration costs and formulate targeted carbon sink economic policies and management measures to maximize the carbon sequestration potential of collective forests and promote the sustainable development of forestry.