Simulating Carbon Sequestration using Cellular Automata and land use assessment; Case of: Karaj City, Iran

Abstract. In this study, in the city of Karaj five classes of land use-cover including residential, agriculture, rangeland, forest and barren areas were considered and randomly in each class a total of 20 points were selected and vegetation and soil samples were taken. In plant samples, the amount of carbon sequestration was determined by calculating the amount of organic carbon by dry weight and in soil samples, the amount of carbon sequestration was determined by using Walleky and Black method, too. For each area, the average value of carbon sequestration of samples was introduced as carbon sequestration index of that class. Average values for each category were determined as an indicator of carbon sequestration of that class and then by using the DINAMICA EGO software a simulation was conducted using cellular automata approach to simulate changes in the classes of land use-cover in the city of Karaj. Finally, by using carbon sequestration index and the results of the simulation, changes in carbon sequestration in each class were calculated. On this basis, it was found that in the 15-year period from 2014 to 2029, not considering the residential class as the effective use of carbon sequestration, the greatest amount of carbon sequestration was found in the agricultural class and the lowest carbon sequestration was found in barren area. Also, agriculture class will be faced with the huge reduction of carbon sequestration, because of expansion of the residential area.