Whither NATO? A History of NATO’s Futures

Abstract NATO has survived many transatlantic and intra-European controversies. During the Cold War, external developments (the Suez crisis and the war in Vietnam) and internal disagreements (Euromissiles, European defence autonomy, and the standing of France) meant NATO was often seen as crisis prone. The end of the Cold War (arguably NATO’s finest hour) was the occasion for further soul-searching. Having survived that historic turning point, NATO would go on to confront new crises. These too were often seen as existential. US President Donald Trump’s attack on NATO solidarity lunged the Alliance into a period of profound uncertainty. NATO survived Trump’s term of office (2017–2021) but reliance on American leadership and military might continue to make NATO vulnerable to the vicissitudes of US politics. Alongside this long-standing problem, the NATO allies have also had to confront a resurgent Russia and the latent threat of China. Adapting to these challenges, along with those of disruptive technological advance, political cohesion, and economic resourcing will (as in the past) continue to test NATO’s staying power.