Do the Marginalized Kill More during Holidays?

<b>Objectives</b> Criminologists have studied the link between homicides and holidays since the 1970s (Lester, 1979); national holidays in the US are known to coincide with an increase in the daily homicide rate. However, this empirical regularity has been (a) observed mostly in the US (b) under-theorized. The theory of broken promises of- fers one explanation by positing that marginalized individuals demonstrate a greater propensity towards lethal violence than their peers who are more integrated into so- ciety (Stack, 1995b). The present study aims to test this theory on Russian data.&nbsp; <div> <br> </div> <div> <b>Methods</b> We test this theoretical prediction empirically with the aid of the universe of decisions of Russian criminal courts in 2009–2012 on homicides (N = 63,908). We capitalize on rich information on offenders’ socio-economic status at sentencing, which allows us to construct a daily count of homicides committed by marginalized and non-marginalized individuals.&nbsp; </div> <div> <br> </div> <div> <b>Results</b> Contrary to the predictions of the broken promises theory, we find that well-integrated individuals (employed first-time offenders) show a greater propensity towards homicide during Russian national holidays than the marginalized groups. While the effect is present for both groups, it is twice more potent for the integrated offenders. The magnitude of effect for well-integrated individuals is 72% (95 CI: 45–97) v. marginalized with 34% (95 CI: 19–51). Considering the alcohol effect, the difference between these two groups become even more pronounced 82% (95 Cl: 58–111) v. 34% (95 Cl: 23–45)&nbsp; </div> <div> <br> </div> <div> <b>Conclusions</b> An alternative explanation, e.g., Routine Activity theory, carries more weight when exploring the holiday homicide nexus. </div>